USDHUF AT RISK ?

Guys if you trade USD/HUF then you gotta pay attention to latest formations on M,W and D charts. My weekly  stat arb is slightly skewed higher and supports the current bounce on the monthly trendline. I think there is a strong possibility of 230  and I am closely watching the flag structure on dailies along with the support on the daily trendline at 221. 

Good luck!

Indian elections USDINR thoughts!

Just a word of caution here for my followers from India.  Updating my thoughts as have got several requests with regards to USDINR.

First things first, my monthly and weekly stat arb have realigned for a slightly bullish forecasts and project a gradual move higher valid for next 3-4 months. Technically 59 is now key and should remain pivotal for next couple of months . I rarely trade against my model forecast hence I am more likely to stay away from INR shorts due to high carry but for corp players levels like 59 and 56( very strong , that thou if we see this) are good levels to own Dollars I believe.

INR traders and FDI's have already positioned for BJP victory and now what matters is the majority with which BJP wins. The higher majority is likely to give an immediate push to USDINR lower and a slim majority will result in profit taking sales to emerge.

As per model forecast a 4-5% upward correction is likely from post election Monday USDINR daily close price.

best of luck..