RV Trade: Bullish HUF/PLN

Ref Rate 100HUF= 1 PLN

Long term charts in HUF/PLN indicate a very good medium term opportunity for longs  in 1.34-1.3550 region depending on what sort of risk profile you have . The base of the long term trendline is at 1.3400 , I believe the support will continue attractive relative value traders and  there is good potential for 1.4200 in 6 months time.

>First of all my quant models compliment the current growth figures in Hungary which is now in the league of fast growing economies in (CEE region).
>Hungary's current account surplus will continue supporting the Forint relative to Poland which runs a deficit.
>Both CB's i.e  MNB and NBP have initiated series of small rate cuts  citing deflationary risks however the NBP seems relatively more dovish than MNB in its approach to tackle deflationary threats.


Risks:
Both Hungary and Poland have picked up momentum in terms of growth this year. The events which will dictate  the  pair are as below:
>Change in monetary stance by CB's
> Inflation starting to pick up.

Best of luck traders!
PS: Not to confuse the Bullish HUF/PLN with the earlier posted  Bullish USD/HUF . Different strategy one is RV other one is Directional..

Moreover the USD/HUF made a high print of 227.30 and had gained almost 2.75% since my post on 22nd May (221.50)

Silver/Gold Ratio an interesting medium term trade for 2014 !

Ref: 100oz Silver =  oz Gold

XAG/XAU  has been testing a long term trendline since 90's and has now made an interesting reversal pattern which I like to call it as 'Triangular Reversal' at a major trend line support. In other words Silver is heading for a major reversal and is more likely to revert back to 1.75 with a strong possibility of 1.90  on a longer term basis against Gold. My analysis is based on few stat arb models which I have run at my end and traditional methods like the one posted here. In short  Long XAG/XAU ref rate 1.58 has a potential to gain 15-20% in about years time. Fundamental factors could play a role as US growth gathers momentum along with other western countries like UK . ( Not to mention the positive spillover effects of US growth on EM countries.)
Medium-Long Term Play Guys
Best of luck traders !