Ref Rate 100HUF= 1 PLN
Long term charts in HUF/PLN indicate a very good medium term opportunity for longs in 1.34-1.3550 region depending on what sort of risk profile you have . The base of the long term trendline is at 1.3400 , I believe the support will continue attractive relative value traders and there is good potential for 1.4200 in 6 months time.
>First of all my quant models compliment the current growth figures in Hungary which is now in the league of fast growing economies in (CEE region).
>Hungary's current account surplus will continue supporting the Forint relative to Poland which runs a deficit.
>Both CB's i.e MNB and NBP have initiated series of small rate cuts citing deflationary risks however the NBP seems relatively more dovish than MNB in its approach to tackle deflationary threats.
Risks:
Both Hungary and Poland have picked up momentum in terms of growth this year. The events which will dictate the pair are as below:
>Change in monetary stance by CB's
> Inflation starting to pick up.
Best of luck traders!
PS: Not to confuse the Bullish HUF/PLN with the earlier posted Bullish USD/HUF . Different strategy one is RV other one is Directional..
Moreover the USD/HUF made a high print of 227.30 and had gained almost 2.75% since my post on 22nd May (221.50)
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