I currently work as Strategist/Trader for a boutique FX money manager . I am passionate about FX and love forecasting and trading the most challenging asset class. As a post grad of Cass Business School graduating during peak recession wasn't the best ever time to start a career in FX . Made my way up starting from a small prop trading firm from being a prop trader towards being a dealer and then fortunate being offered a strategist role at Sharpe+Signa LLC then called Vanguard Axis Currency Series(VA).
The trade which got me the job and made me leave my employer back in 2012 was arguable the trade of the decade . Not a difficult guess Long USD/JPY in my email report sent on 22/2/2012 .
How I devised the trade will be posted in my next blog and you will be surprised that you did not require complex mathematical models or advance knowledge of how market dynamics work. Although I did have algorithms which has given me heads up on the move but I kept it very simple and intuitive.
Always believed the fact
Fundamentals first , Charts never lie .. Most often fundamentals reflect in the charts however they are misinterpreted . A classic example you will see when I post my Sell Dollar Strategy recommended on April 13. Yes 'Sell Dollar' ! when US was growing and massive CTA programmes were run to 'Buy Dollars' during this period. The outcomes were horrific where we saw downfall of FX Concepts, World class systematic funds based in Cambridge and London deploying sophisticated algorithms and genius mathematicians went down double digits in single month and Tier -1 banks had no clue whatsoever why Buy Dollar trade recommendations were not working.
It was emotional year for me issuing a Buy EUR/USD strategy along with Long EUR crosses (EUR/JPY, EUR/SGD,EURAUD,EUR/SGD,EUR/TRY). Sitting tight on my desk being confident and sticking to my views against probably rest and the best of the financial world .
Later on this blog I will post my report with actual time stamped evidence . The report was again very simple but intuitive and yes again my models did give me heads up. My job was to just simply put it up in 'ABCD' format.
On 30/5/2013 again my gut was screaming something was wrong with USD/JPY (UJ) and my eyes had detected a very unusual pattern along with my brain analyzing cross market correlations. I immediately called my MD over weekend and mentioned him UJ is going to get hit hard and number one reason for that is EMFX/Commodity FX selloff . Market is chatting about how USD will be bid due to EMFX selloff and how again traders had misjudged market correlations and developed a mindset in believing USD will actually rally. What happen next you will wish you weren't part of and if you were then you will see how and why that happened. The result UJ dropped 6-7 figures in about 2 weeks and again macro funds got hit bigtime.
2013 was a great year in terms of predicting FX markets where I also predicted USD/INR to trade 65 and it went 69.30! Wasn't good feeling when got a client call asking to forecast USD/INR for next 3 months when the pair was actually trading at top of range in 60's.. Somehow it went well client happy does the job for me..
Later on in the year I misjudged a Long AUD/NZD trade at 1.1200 but was quick to cut it with minimal losses after giving a glimpse at weekly chart where weird price action was noticed at 1.1580.. phew don't regret that exit..
I ended the year with my last report on 13th Nov based on EMFX model where I mentioned EUR crosses are again heading higher i.e EUR/HUF, EUR/TRY, EUR/INR, EUR/CAD, EUR/CAD,EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD, EUR/SGD. The most striking feature of this report was that I again had to hold my breadth and issue a Long EUR report 1 week post surprise ECB rate cut . Did I have any doubts whether it will work or not ? No .. tweeted on 26th Nov EUR/TRY heading higher and since then the beast moved about 8 figures higher.. let alone the other crosses apart from EUR/INR . ( can't get everything right !)
This report striking feature was that multiple EUR cross models were forecasting a higher move supporting by a matching signal in underlying USD cross. For example EUR/TRY and USD/TRY bullish forecasts matched.
So why did I post my trades here later?
Very simple reason its Dec I have taken time off and thought to do something constructive rather than wait for Santa and deliver top trade rec's for 2014. On a serious note they are posted here now for educational purposes and if any institutional investor wants the original copy to verify my claims I am more than happy to sent the original time stamped mail which I sent to my traders.
Follow me on twitter @Quantumsquawk
contact: amit_rwd (at) hotmail (dot) com
Networking : Open for discussions with like minded traders and career opportunities
regards,
Amit
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